Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates
نویسندگان
چکیده
Climate change is projected to negatively impact food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The magnitude of these impacts expected be amplified by the extensive reliance on rainfed agriculture and prevalence subsistence farming. In Great Lakes Region Central Africa, smallholder farming households are largely dependent root, tuber banana crops. However, potential various climate scenarios crops not well reported. Yet, data-rich insights about future adaptive capacity critical inform research development investments towards regional adaptation. We aimed gain tuber, Region, specifically investigating changes localised crop suitability, planting dates, identifying ‘climate-proof’ variety types each for specific geographies. developed a modified version EcoCrop model analyse suitability climates four key (banana, cassava, potato, sweetpotato) suite varieties (typical, heat-tolerant, drought-tolerant, early maturing). considers only direct suitability. It does consider how affecting occurrence extreme weather events or indirect effects incidence severity pest disease outbreaks. Our results demonstrate that will somewhat favourable banana-based systems, with widespread negative seen potato. These should qualified observation most cases environmental banana, sweetpotato remain constant improve if farmers shift schedules. Location- crop-dependent shifts different were found effective improving under climates. Data driven generated from this work can used as first step developing spatially explicit recommendations both decision-makers adapt plan investment needed livelihoods those long-term changes.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Agricultural Systems
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1873-2267', '0308-521X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103246